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Twitter, Inc. (TWTR)

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  • J
    John
    $TWTR conversation
    Today if $TWTR finishes at or near it's low and tomorrow being a non-descript Friday, it could be very, very brutal. No one will want to hold over the weekend.

    Could it touch the 59s tomorrow at close?
  • M
    Mango
    $SNAP conversation
    In order to understand why $SNAP is trading where it's trading (valuation wise), we have to understand the story and the long-term picture. Here it is (from a bullish perspective: $SNAP delivers comparable ad ROI returns to that of $FB and gets similar ARPU grab to $FB (~$45-$50/DAU annually). Keep in mind, $SNAP will likely drive far more advertiser value than $TWTR long-term while $TWTR is already monetizing at $16-$17/DAU annually.In addition, $SNAP continues to expand its international use as the rebuilt Android design draw in the international crowd. Keep in mind that $SNAP is still early-innings in many of these international markets, so there is a lot of room for expansion. So, let's value $SNAP. What's it really worth. Well, to understand that, let's try to think about where the business will be in a decade. Here are the numbers behind the narrative:

    - ARPU of $45
    - DAUs of 500mln
    - Revenue of $22.5bln
    - 87% gross margins ($6 of CoRPU, mostly infrastructure/revenue share, and content creation costs)
    - ~$6 billion in OpEx (vs. ~$2.2B in 2020)

    On the current share count of ~1.5B shares, 2030 $SNAP is doing ~$9/share in EPS. Assuming a 4% earnings yield (basically 25x earnings) for a high margin, high growth tech business, which is roughly in line with present-day $FB, then $SNAP can be worth ~$225/share in 2030. Discounting back at ~7%/year (low rate environment, moderating equity beta, low ERP) I'm at a 2022 year end PT of ~$125/share.
  • J
    John
    $TWTR conversation
    I just checked the volume chart on the day graph. There is a lot of nothingness in terms of volume this afternoon ... less difficult to swing the trades that fill at Ask. Congrats to $TWTR, it may be an even or positive day. No tail for low at close so next week is a toss-up.
  • M
    Mango
    $PINS conversation
    Hello all. I figured I would lay out why I'm a long-term bull on $PINS and why it is one of my favorite names within the social media advertising universe. First of all let's understand the value propositions for $PINS from both an advertiser and a user perspective:

    Starting with the users. Users love $PINS because it's simply a different type of platform. This isn't a platform where the most engagement (likes, comments, etc.) wins (like $TWTR or $FB). It's an inspiration engine of sorts. If you want to get ideas for a vacation, or how to redecorate your house you use $PINS. $PINS is like an inspiration search engine. The more you show $PINS about what you enjoy on the platform, the more they can curate specific content to you. The social aspect is the exchanging of inspiration. This leaves users with a sweet taste in their mouth after using the platform, whereas $FB and $TWTR users tend to be more bitter after using the app (think of the crazy political discourse on those apps). The stats back it up: 47% of $PINS users have an intent to purchase vs. mid to high teens on other platforms. This isn't a social media platform, it's social commerce.

    For advertisers: Users have high purchase intent, there is a lot of first party data that $PINS has on platform to better target and curate ads, and it doesn't have the PR backlash of advertising on $TWTR or $FB. Sure, you might not get the third party targeting, and the automated ad platform is still in the early innings, but the long-term value proposition for advertisers is there: 459 million people are looking for inspiration. Give it to them.
  • M
    Mango
    $SNAP conversation
    Growth tech names like $ZM $TSLA $SNAP $PINS $SFIX $TWLO $NVDA $TWTR etc. selling off for a simple reason. Powell saying that when the economy returns to normal so will inflation. This leads to strong fundamentals growth (booming economy) but rising rate environment. Rising rates hit DCF discount rates on growth stocks (all of the aforementioned names have huge multiples). This means the highest multiple stocks start coming back to reality. I've been rolling back into my highest conviction names. As fundamentals show their strength, the market will likely get over the temporary valuation correction and re-rate growth names higher. I'm not going long value tech ($INTC or $FB or $AAPL), I'm going to stick to what works. Long $PINS and $SNAP more specifically.
  • M
    Mango
    $SNAP conversation
    Now, I do admit $SNAP is mostly saturated domestically and in Europe in terms of usage. The real user growth opportunity is going to come from international (think Mexico, East Asia, Latin America, etc.) where purchasing power is lower, but Android is the predominant mobile operating system. In $SNAP's Analyst Day event they highlight the ways they are going to sustain strong engagement. At this point in time, $SNAP has differentiated itself enough from the competition that the risk of competition grabbing users is likely minimal. It's happened before, but $SNAP's platform has grown and evolved since then, adding new, entrenching features to retain and add users. In addition, because of it's privacy-centric and content-moderation lite structure, $SNAP will not incur costs that a $FB or $TWTR would from content moderation, meaning their operating margins could actually be much higher long-term than anything $FB or $TWTR is doing. At the end of the day, I'm focused on the long-term of this company. The biggest concern about this company is it's valuation. And believe me, I understand the concern. At ~15.7x '22 revenue, it's not cheap. Or is it? Let me break down my valuation for this business, and why it could generate so much more in returns than $FB or $TWTR.
  • J
    John
    $TWTR conversation
    As an addendum you can find easily, $TWTR EPS average estimates are as follows;

    2021 - $0.88 per share
    2022 - $1.13 per share

    IF they hit average estimates, TWTR is 4+ more times overvalued than Facebook. $TWTR is not a new start-up but considered a decently long-in-the-tooth legacy tech company founded in 2006, now 15 years old. Can you believe it???
  • J
    John
    $TWTR conversation
    $TWTR closed down over 5%. Only news was an outright lie from Dow Jones that $TWTR fell 2.8% (news at 4:02 ET). Deep State in Finance. This will could get interesting.
  • J
    John
    $TWTR conversation
    I am sensing the last 10 minutes of the market could be a race to which tech stock will win the lowest of the day award ... this has NOTHING to do with $TWTR, it is the increase in bond yields, Mr. Powell, folks staring at the 'web' less ...
  • b
    bullseye
    $AAPL conversation
    1.9 TRILLION passed in the senate with $1400 stimulus checks. You can cut this two ways. Bulls are going to say YAY $1400 stimulus going to jack up stocks!!! Bears are going to say yeah you idiots 1.9 trillion dollars more in inflation which is going to increase treasury yields which is going to bring down tech and growth stocks. Tech stocks had an unprecedented run up during a pandemic. You think $1400 stimmys is going to help bring up your precious stocks up. Fundamentals matter at some point. Tech is going to bring down the overall market but recovery stocks won't get hit as hard. Plain and simple. Democrats don't care about Americans anymore. ONLY their special interests and the funny thing is a lot of people including young millenials are paying attention to politics now because all they can do at home is watch what is happening in the politicial climate because of covid. politcs was boring before but now it's center stage. EVERYONE is watching.

    $msft $amzn $fb $twtr $goog $nflx $zm $pltr $ba $ual $dis $ccl $nclh $aal $dal $rcl
  • J
    John
    $TWTR conversation
    Someone tried like heck to prop $TWTR up at close. Tomorrow will be fun day to watch!
  • J
    John
    $TWTR conversation
    When the market makers realize inflation is very real (gas prices, bond yields, housing values, cost of consumer good, etc.) and the labor market is still weak, this will get ugly very fast.

    We have already had two major tremors in a week. When the earthquakes comes, UGLY!

    I am NOT talking specifically about $TWTR. No comments from Powell will help. They are already giving money out at basically no cost.
  • J
    John
    $TWTR conversation
    I did a 1 day chart overlay of $PINS and $TWTR (feel free). They are veritable copies of each other today.

    Not sure why they are so linked at the hip except social media ... thoughts?
  • J
    John
    $TWTR conversation
    Those interesting in trading, not necessarily $TWTR as a company to buy and invest in:

    - If the closing price is @ the low for the day (or a headfake next to it), look for a string of down days
    - Make money up or down, it's your money, it is not a religion
    - Aside: The Golden Globes was not good for $TWTR, unfortunate for the brand
  • J
    John
    $TWTR conversation
    Obvious warning: If $TWTR finished at the low of the day or a hair different, watch out for Thursday and ESPECIALLY FRIDAY EOD. It could be multiple dollars ugly.
  • J
    John
    $TWTR conversation
    From THE $TWTR. Does that mean a loss or am I missing something???

    "For Q1'21, we expect:

    Total revenue to be between $940 million and $1.04 billion
    GAAP operating income to be between a loss of $50 million and break even"
  • J
    J.Y
    How is this company market cap worth more than twitter $twtr and pinterest $pins market cap combines?
  • B
    Biogemfinder
    $ROKU conversation
    $ROKU Bounced off nicely from the 50dMA. Profit takers and weak hands are now flushed out. New money should be coming in and we should be heading to $500.... $TSLA bounced off nicely after a long consolidation. For ROKU RSI of 46 is quite low and I expect quick upside is in the offing..... $QQQ $NFLX $AAPL $QS $SQ $TWTR $UBER
  • S
    Steve
    $TSLA conversation
    My rough estimate is that $TSLA bought $BTC at $45,000 range x 33,333 $BTC.

    With $BTC at $44,000 now, $TSLA started losing money on it.

    For $TWTR, they are already in red - losing millions of dollars in $BTC.
  • J
    John
    $TWTR conversation
    Congrats to $TWTR management on the 'Hope and Change' targets! Well played pump.

    Of course they have been a publically traded company since Nov, 2013 (8 years) with a business model that has not brought them fame, fortune or riches. Forward looking statement seem to help more than the business model recently. Again, well played for the pump.