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S&P 500 (^GSPC)

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4,349.93-6.52 (-0.15%)
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  • J
    Jon
    $^GSPC conversation
    I hope that everyone has read Chapter 1 & 2 from the book "The Intelligent Investor" on Investment vs. Speculation & Inflation. You will understand where the market currently is and what will happen in the near future with increasing inflation and eventual increase in interest rates.

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  • B
    BobDole
    $SPY conversation
    Hey guys, just wondering how much you guys are up YTD or since the market crashed in late Feb. Just curious. If you're not comfortable listing a % gain/loss, you can simply note you're at a loss or a gain since (x date). We're all here to make money, so I hope you all are.

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  • B
    BobDole
    $SPY conversation
    If you're new to the stock market, welcome! The sooner you learn the market cycle, the sooner you'll accept the emotional roller coaster you'll be going on. Contrary to recent popular euphoric myth, pandemics, recessions and depressions of -60% to -90% or more drops in the stock market are not strange anomalies restricted to the past only.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/PzVLsu2afMbucPMd6

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  • D
    David
    $^DJI conversation
    For how long this Stock Price PUMPING Festival will continue? Will The US Stock indexes ever go down properly again?
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  • J
    Jon
    $^GSPC conversation
    Shiller P/E is 33+ on the S&P500. This market is WAY overvalued.

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  • B
    BobDole
    $SPY conversation
    OK OK, the S&P broke support today. It started off good, but I think Dr. Fauci's testimony about reopening too early causing more death and destruction spooked the market. Sold all longs a few mins ago and went to $TVIX and some $SQQQ. After all, the market only went up on hope/hype of a reopening.

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  • B
    Bob
    $SPY conversation
    If you were smart, you would have moved 401K out for any trapped bag holders and sold your long positions. Next week the real blood bath begins. Manipulator always try to keep the market in a controlled free fall by pushing it up on Fridays so the weekly numbers look good and so they can short for the following week.

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  • B
    BobDole
    $SPY conversation
    Shutdown 2.0 is here, and the second wave of coronavirus isn't even here yet.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/13/california-to-close-indoor-restaurants-movie-theaters-and-bars-statewide-as-coronavirus-cases-rise.html

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    California Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered Monday all counties in the state to close indoor operations for a handful of businesses, including restaurants, bars, movie theaters and museums, as Covid-19 cases continue to climb.
    California Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered Monday all counties in the state to close indoor operations for a handful of businesses, including restaurants, bars, movie theaters and museums, as Covid-19 cases continue to climb.
    www.cnbc.com
  • w
    waterman
    If economy is still heating up and stock is booming again, the Fed has no reason to hold off rate increase, they will keep raising interest rate in 2019. Remember the NY Fed says they are willing to consider keeping interest rate the same IF market data shows we are slowing. So if stocks is soaring, then there will be more interest rate increases in 2019. Understand cause and consequences and invest carefully. $^GSPC $^DJI $^RUT
  • J
    Jon
    $^GSPC conversation
    "Powell likely going to have to raise interest rates."

    Yes. As inflation increases, the way to curb it is through raising interest rates. The fed originally stated that rates weren't going to rise until at least 2022. However, it seems that we may see a rate increase sooner than expected.

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  • B
    BobDole
    $SPY conversation
    Even with most countries (China, Iran, Italy, U.S.) except for South Korea and Singapore faking their numbers, the log chart shows exponential growth of cases (i.e. 45% daily increases of the total). Imagine if countries, including the U.S. were actually truthful and giving real figures. We'd not just have exponential (highlighted yellow, straight line), but we'd have an acceleration of the exponential (what we're seeing with the red arrow direction). I calculated we should see 13-14 more after the 9 from yesterday. Today, 12 got added to 9, making it 21. So far my math is pretty much spot on. The day is still young. More reports should be coming in.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/rWDiXEc2d1X7AYFN9

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  • B
    BobDole
    $SPY conversation
    Here's the real problem. And it's not even the fall 2nd wave yet. We're still in the first wave.
    https://photos.app.goo.gl/afF8oi81Y17VYWRKA

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  • B
    BobDole
    $SPY conversation
    Surprise! I bet it's higher than this because again, you can't use the CURRENT death count and divide by the TOTAL infected. You have to divide it by a few days in the past to even get a generally somewhat accurate estimate. Once all the people on the cruise ship survives/deceases, we can calculate from that, but that'll be dependent on the type of passengers too.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

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    World health officials say the case fatality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% globally, higher than previous estimates of about 2%.
    World health officials say the case fatality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% globally, higher than previous estimates of about 2%.
    www.cnbc.com
  • J
    Jon
    $^GSPC conversation
    COVID deaths up. We will be hitting records in the next few days. Deficit spending up. Companies have decreased earnings, yet markets are at ATH. This is a classic bubble folks. S&P500 is worth half of what it is today, based on the Shiller P/E.

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  • B
    BobDole
    $SPY conversation
    You guys DO know ALL governments right now are scared shirtless because they don't know what to do anymore and are just buying time, right? They tell the public to be calm, but that's just a facade to keep order. Just checking.

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  • B
    BobDole
    $SPY conversation
    Looks like everyone's selling on the rallies. Remember to SELL THE RIPS! Don't baghold the DIPS! Full economic collapse is coming and the Feds know this. Next up: -50% GDP, -40% unemployment and the Feds will send everyone a check for the next 2 years to "sustain the economic bubble".

    The very act of desperation today means we get multiple limit downs. I wouldn't be surprised if we see -25% today.

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  • J
    Jon
    $^GSPC conversation
    Judge should overturn the tax free unemployment income from 2020 next. It's theft to get 10k and not pay any tax while someone who works for 10k must pay tax.

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  • B
    BobDole
    $SPY conversation
    After doing some more research on the 1918 Flu Pandemic (variant of H1N1) and the 2009 pandemic flu (also a different variant of H1N1), both variants were able to infect and kill people in July (1918 variant), and April through July (2009 variant). This was obviously during the warm summer months. Viruses typically can be airborne easier in cold, dry air. However, because people had no immunity to both H1N1 strains (and the SARS-CoV-2 virus), this could explain why the summer months were a breeding ground for those two pandemic flu. The 1918 variant of course continued to infect slowly over August and Sept and exploded at the end of Sept, killing over 50+ million people worldwide.

    Warm, humidity air generally isn't favorable for viruses. This suggests the summer won't save us from SARS-CoV-2. Furthermore, countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, where the temperature is in the 80s and 90s, with high humidity, all reported human to human transmission, with something as simple as transporting something in a taxi. Singapore has a world class health system, rivaling the U.S. or even better, and they were serious about tracking and combating the infection, so they got theirs under control. There are some reports that Thailand is hush hush and diagnosing their infected only as "viral pneumonia".

    Best case scenario is the infections slow down over the summer for the U.S., but still continue throughout the summer (with more mild symptoms and people therefore not checking in), continuing to incubate in tens of millions of Americas, allowing for an explosion of infections and deaths in the fall like in the 1918 Pandemic Flu.

    Worse case scenario is the virus ignores the warmer temperature and because of low immunity to this new virus AND the explosive infectiousness of this virus (R0 of 6-7 as compared to 1-2 for the flu).

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/2omu16Bfcis39yVc8

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  • B
    Bob
    $SPY conversation
    Feb 28 (~2 weeks ago) to Mar 14. Cases and Death increases, in just 2 weeks. Imagine what the next 2-4 weeks will be like. This virus will continue for the next 4 months through July like the 1918 and 2009 pandemic flu. Hot countries like Brazil proves the virus continues to spread so long as the people allow it to. Get out while you can my friends. If you had listened, you could have gotten out weeks ago and saved yourself a bunch of money on your 401K and made a shizit ton shorting like me. The market will tank -50% from the all time high, easily, and most likely beyond -70% because this isn't a snow storm. You don't just go back to work.
    Layoffs, loan defaults, and bankruptcies are coming, worldwide = Great Depression 2.0

    And THEN, the 2nd wave hits in the fall, and the winter/spring, and keeps repeating. You. Have. Been. Warned. Like. You. Were. Warned. Before.

    In 2-3 months AFTER infection, each country (and we're talking smaller countries 1/5th the size of the U.S.) will have deaths exceeding that of the TOTAL annual seasonal flu deaths of THE United States of AmeriKah alone, something that normally takes 7 months. That means the exponential growth from the 2-3 months to the final 7 months will get it into the millions or tens of millions per country, dead, if no lockdowns are in place.

    So much for "the flu is worse" non-sense.

    The only alternative is full and total lockdown of each country, which means lowered consuming spending, layoffs, loan defaults, bankruptcies and recession/depression.

    Undo lockdown, and the Wuhan supercoronaflu does it's exponential magic again.
    Lockdown again, and back to recession/depression.

    All roads lead to a Great Depression 2.0 and -90% in the stock market.

    Italy:
    888 to 17.7K cases
    21 to 1,266 deaths

    Spain:
    33 to 5.2K
    0 to 133

    Iran:
    388 to 11.4K
    34 to 514

    Germany:
    60 to 3.7K
    0 to 8

    France:
    57 to 3.7K
    2 to 79

    US:
    62 to 2.3K
    0 to 50

    Swiss:
    15 to 1,139
    0 to 11

    S. Korea:
    2.3K to 8.1K
    16 to 72

    UK:
    20 to 798
    0 to 11

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  • B
    BobDole
    $SPY conversation
    CDC: “This is a real battle. This is one of the most critical, complicated public health crises the country has faced in over a century,”
    Trump: "This is a Democratic hoax, that'll go away in April, like magic. It is what it is, the deaths. But the stock market is doing great."

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-criticism-is-not-always-benign-cd-cs-redfield-laments-polarization-warns-coronavirus-is-a-war-185805867.html

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